English councils are warning that debt linked to special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) could reach £10 billion by 2028, as demand for support in schools continues to rise. The forecast, reported on 13 October 2026, is a warning about the scale of future pressure rather than a confirmed final debt total.
The debate matters to families seeking support for children, schools trying to meet additional needs and councils responsible for arranging services. It also raises questions about how the government will fund the system as temporary accounting arrangements approach their scheduled end in 2028.
Why SEND costs are rising
Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) set out the additional education, health and care support required by eligible children and young people in England. Department for Education statistics show 718,838 plans were active in January 2026, 12.5% more than a year earlier. Local authorities received 162,702 requests for an EHC needs assessment during 2025, an increase of 5.3% on 2024.
Demand for support has grown faster than the system’s ability to assess and provide it. The same official statistics show that 46.1% of new plans were issued within the 20-week statutory timeframe in 2025, although certain exceptions can apply. The figures illustrate the pressure on both families waiting for decisions and councils arranging provision.
What the £10bn forecast means
The County Councils Network has warned that SEND deficits could build up again after the government agreed to cover 90% of eligible historic deficits accrued up to the end of the 2025/26 financial year. Councils say future costs remain uncertain while demand continues to increase.
The forecast does not mean every council will face the same financial position, or that £10bn has already been spent. It is a projection of accumulated deficits if spending pressures continue. The impact on individual authorities will depend on local demand, available provision and the funding arrangements ultimately confirmed by ministers.
What the government has committed to
The government’s local government finance settlement says further details on support for deficits arising in 2026/27 and 2027/28 will be confirmed before the statutory accounting override ends on 31 March 2028. From 2028/29, SEND spending is intended to be covered through the overall central government budget, so councils are not expected to fund future SEND costs from their general funds once the override ends.
However, the precise support for deficits that accumulate before 2028 remains important. Councils are seeking clarity so they can plan budgets without reducing essential services elsewhere. The issue is part of a wider debate about public finances ahead of the next fiscal announcements; SeaIsleNews has also covered the Treasury’s preparations for its 28 October announcement.
What this means for families and schools
For parents, the immediate concern is whether children can receive timely assessments and appropriate support. The financial argument does not remove councils’ responsibilities to consider individual needs under the SEND framework. Families who are waiting for an assessment can check the status with their local authority and keep records of correspondence, reports and school support already in place.
Schools and councils also need enough specialist staff and suitable placements to turn funding into practical help. Simply changing who carries the accounting cost will not, on its own, guarantee shorter waits or better outcomes; delivery depends on capacity, planning and support that matches children’s needs.
What to watch next
The next key developments are the government’s detailed arrangements for SEND deficits in 2026/27 and 2027/28, alongside the wider reforms intended to improve support in mainstream schools. Councils, schools and families will be watching for clear funding rules and evidence that assessments and services are becoming more responsive.
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